{"doctrine":"Every endpoint we sell grades itself against reality in public. This is /weather/consensus's ledger: each UTC day we record the EXACT paid handler's day-max forecast for 6 fixed cities, then grade it 2+ days later against the ERA5 reanalysis archive (an independent pipeline). Hits, misses, bias — shown, not claimed.","endpoint":"GET /weather/consensus","predictions_recorded":168,"graded":162,"pending":6,"mae_c":1.7,"bias_c":-1.05,"by_city":{"nyc":{"n":27,"mae_c":1.69},"la":{"n":27,"mae_c":1.63},"chicago":{"n":27,"mae_c":2.43},"miami":{"n":27,"mae_c":1.06},"london":{"n":27,"mae_c":0.7},"tokyo":{"n":27,"mae_c":2.72}},"recent":[{"city":"tokyo","date":"2026-09-11","predicted_max_c":19.8,"actual_max_c":null,"abs_err_c":null,"graded":false},{"city":"london","date":"2026-09-11","predicted_max_c":21.5,"actual_max_c":null,"abs_err_c":null,"graded":false},{"city":"miami","date":"2026-09-11","predicted_max_c":31.1,"actual_max_c":null,"abs_err_c":null,"graded":false},{"city":"chicago","date":"2026-09-11","predicted_max_c":22.5,"actual_max_c":null,"abs_err_c":null,"graded":false},{"city":"la","date":"2026-09-11","predicted_max_c":38,"actual_max_c":null,"abs_err_c":null,"graded":false},{"city":"nyc","date":"2026-09-11","predicted_max_c":31.4,"actual_max_c":null,"abs_err_c":null,"graded":false},{"city":"tokyo","date":"2026-08-17","predicted_max_c":30.2,"actual_max_c":29.7,"abs_err_c":0.5,"graded":true},{"city":"london","date":"2026-08-17","predicted_max_c":25.2,"actual_max_c":26.3,"abs_err_c":1.1,"graded":true},{"city":"miami","date":"2026-08-17","predicted_max_c":32.9,"actual_max_c":33.6,"abs_err_c":0.7,"graded":true},{"city":"chicago","date":"2026-08-17","predicted_max_c":28,"actual_max_c":27.6,"abs_err_c":0.4,"graded":true},{"city":"la","date":"2026-08-17","predicted_max_c":30,"actual_max_c":33.5,"abs_err_c":3.5,"graded":true},{"city":"nyc","date":"2026-08-17","predicted_max_c":30.6,"actual_max_c":27.6,"abs_err_c":3,"graded":true}],"method":{"predict":"vendored paid handler, Open-Meteo forecast leg, day-max, 1/city/day (6 cities, fixed forever)","grade":"ERA5 archive day-max, 2-day lag","durability":"append-only JSONL, git-snapshotted (tamper-evident), survives redeploys"},"as_of":"2026-09-11T04:55:09.444Z"}